Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.04.0
High danger: 36
Chances: 617
Shots: 2131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances17

3High-danger chances6

2.05Expected goals3.98

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	5–6	2–3	1.3–1.4
2nd	8–15	1–7	1–2	0.6–1.7
3rd	3–6	0–4	0–1	0.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.98
GSAx: -0.02

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: -0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:14Penalty
1st 10:02Riley Stillman (1–0)low · 58 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 11:48Penalty
1st 12:03James Hamblin (2–0)4v5 · medium · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 12:56Penalty
1st 12:56Penalty
1st 13:31Penalty
1st 13:31Cole Guttman (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Connor Ungar
1st 17:15Damien Carfagna (3–1)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 2:40Koehn Ziemmer (3–2)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Connor Ungar
2nd 4:53Penalty
2nd 7:07Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
3rd 0:57Penalty
3rd 3:34Koehn Ziemmer (3–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 6:50Koehn Ziemmer (3–4)low · 33 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 8:46Penalty
3rd 14:43Penalty
3rd 14:43Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty