Hershey Bears at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Hershey Bears

1:6

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

HERLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.13.7
High danger: 29
Chances: 816
Shots: 2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances9

2.12Expected goals3.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–4	0–1	0.5–0.8
2nd	8–11	2–6	1–5	0.7–1.7
3rd	10–9	4–6	1–3	0.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 22
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.68
GSAx: -2.32

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: +1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:37Marc Del Gaizo (0–1)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 9:10Penalty
1st 9:10Penalty
1st 9:10Penalty
1st 9:10Penalty
2nd 0:51Penalty
2nd 4:37Penalty
2nd 9:00Penalty
2nd 9:00Penalty
2nd 9:55Sean Farrell (0–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 36 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 10:30Penalty
2nd 12:24Penalty
2nd 13:26Alex Belzile (0–3)5v4 · high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 15:06Nate Clurman (0–4)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 15:22Penalty
2nd 17:10Penalty
2nd 19:57Graeme Clarke (1–4)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 2:22Owen Beck (1–5)medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 2:40Penalty
3rd 2:40Penalty
3rd 7:28Penalty
3rd 11:34Samuel Blais (1–6)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 12:45Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty