AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 13

Springfield Thunderbirds at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Springfield Thunderbirds
6:3
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

SPRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
80%20%
xG
2.91.8
High danger
62
Chances
113
Shots
2928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal28
11Scoring chances3
6High-danger chances2
2.87Expected goals1.79

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–53–01–01.0–0.1
2nd12–107–34–21.3–1.0
3rd7–131–01–00.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
2.87
GSAx
-3.13
Will Cranley
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
1.79
GSAx
-1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:03Theo Lindstein (1–0)low · 33 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 6:24Dillon Dube (2–0)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 7:02Jakub Stancl (3–0)medium · 31 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 7:42Penalty
  • 2nd 10:41Calle Rosén (4–0)low · 64 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 13:00Oskar Olausson (4–1)low · 54 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 2nd 14:17Penalty
  • 2nd 16:17Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (4–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 2nd 17:41Penalty
  • 2nd 19:39Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty
  • 3rd 17:02Bradley Marek (4–3)low · 32 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 3rd 17:55Dillon Dube (5–3)empty net · low · 21 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 18:52Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (6–3)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Cal Petersen