San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls

3:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.52.7
High danger: 43
Chances: 79
Shots: 2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.49Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	3–2	3–1	1.2–0.7
2nd	10–11	3–2	1–2	1.0–0.9
3rd	8–14	1–5	0–0	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +1.67

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: -0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:28Penalty
1st 2:27Penalty
1st 3:09Matthew Phillips (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 3:42Penalty
2nd 8:57Tim Washe (2–0)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 17:35James Hamblin (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 19:29Nathan Gaucher (3–1)empty net · low · 141 ft · beat Matt Tomkins