AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 13

Tucson Roadrunners at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
1:6
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TUCCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
1.82.8
High danger
17
Chances
611
Shots
2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26
6Scoring chances11
1High-danger chances7
1.83Expected goals2.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–61–30–30.4–0.9
2nd11–124–51–30.9–1.3
3rd8–81–30–10.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC35:53 of the 3rd14:0714:07+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman
Shots faced
28
Saves
27
Allowed
1
xGA
1.83
GSAx
+0.83
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.82
GSAx
-3.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:28Andrei Loshko (0–1)grade A · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 9:51Penalty
  • 2nd 0:21Jani Nyman (0–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 3:20Penalty
  • 2nd 9:32Penalty
  • 3rd 2:48Penalty
  • 3rd 5:53Logan Morrison (0–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 9:06Eduard Šalé (0–4)low · 34 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 11:41Jack Ricketts (1–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 14:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Lleyton Roed (1–5)empty net · low · 133 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:09Gustav Olofsson (1–6)low · 28 ft · beat Matthew Villalta