Calgary Wranglers at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Calgary Wranglers

1:5

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CGYMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 35
Chances: 711
Shots: 2428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal28

7Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances5

2.01Expected goals2.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–4	2–0	0.8–0.7
2nd	8–9	2–5	0–3	0.5–1.1
3rd	8–9	3–2	1–2	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -2.47

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:14Samuel Fagemo (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 6:10Penalty
1st 13:56Danny Zhilkin (0–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 19:17Brayden Yager (0–3)medium · 20 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 9:49Samuel Fagemo (0–4)high · 12 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 14:22Penalty
2nd 15:36Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 2:48Martin Frk (1–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 4:12Penalty
3rd 6:05Walker Duehr (1–5)4v5 · high · 19 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 17:08Penalty