Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies

2:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.42.5
High danger: 17
Chances: 510
Shots: 1624

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal24

5Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances7

1.43Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–2	0–1	0–1	0.2–0.2
2nd	9–12	2–5	1–4	0.8–1.3
3rd	4–10	3–4	0–2	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	13:17 of the 3rd	6:43	5:03	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -1.54

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.42
GSAx: -0.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Luke Haymes (1–0)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 5:15Penalty
1st 17:40Penalty
2nd 8:10Penalty
2nd 13:55Penalty
2nd 13:55Penalty
2nd 16:17Penalty
2nd 18:21Laurent Dauphin (1–1)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 2:19Owen Beck (1–2)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 10:27Penalty
3rd 10:27Penalty
3rd 13:17Lucas Condotta (1–3)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 15:16Ryan Tverberg (2–3)medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 18:58Joshua Roy (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 186 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov