Hartford Wolf Pack at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HFDCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.12.8
High danger: 84
Chances: 1210
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

12Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances4

3.14Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–9	4–4	3–1	1.2–0.9
2nd	9–5	4–3	4–2	1.0–0.9
3rd	6–12	4–3	1–1	1.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +0.14

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: +0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:40Jack Studnicka (0–1)low · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 9:01Justin Dowling (1–1)low · 20 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 9:15Penalty
1st 11:41Penalty
1st 11:41Penalty
1st 13:42Brendan Brisson (2–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 15:28Jaroslav Chmelar (3–1)high · 19 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 2:53Penalty
2nd 2:53Penalty
2nd 2:53Penalty
2nd 4:09Noah Gregor (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 4:16Penalty
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 11:29Penalty
2nd 11:29Penalty
2nd 15:03Penalty
3rd 0:57Penalty
3rd 1:26Penalty
3rd 5:07Penalty
3rd 9:14Penalty
3rd 12:36Penalty
3rd 12:36Penalty
3rd 16:45Penalty