Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins

4:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 1.41.6
High danger: 12
Chances: 35
Shots: 2518

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal18

3Scoring chances5

1High-danger chances2

1.40Expected goals1.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	0–1	0–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	8–6	1–2	0–1	0.5–0.7
3rd	8–6	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jeremy Smith

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -2.60

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: -0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:07Cam Thiesing (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 7:12Hunter Drew (0–2)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 7:29Frederic Brunet (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
2nd 11:07Penalty
2nd 13:32Penalty
2nd 13:57Christian Wolanin (2–2)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
3rd 2:40John Farinacci (3–2)high · 9 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
3rd 5:43Penalty
3rd 15:01Penalty
3rd 19:34Riley Tufte (4–2)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Jeremy Smith