AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 14

Hershey Bears at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Hershey Bears
6:3
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

HERBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.64.6
High danger
56
Chances
1217
Shots
2342

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal42
12Scoring chances17
5High-danger chances6
2.61Expected goals4.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–144–81–40.9–2.1
2nd6–114–22–10.7–0.9
3rd9–174–72–11.0–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL31:44 of the 3rd18:1617:25+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
42
Saves
39
Allowed
3
xGA
4.56
GSAx
+1.56
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.61
GSAx
-3.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:39Penalty
  • 1st 2:02Alex Suzdalev (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 19 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 6:06Jan Jeník (1–1)grade A · 15 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 7:42Penalty
  • 1st 7:42Penalty
  • 1st 14:01Graeme Clarke (2–1)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 14:37Graeme Clarke (3–1)low · snap · 31 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 1:33Penalty
  • 2nd 17:50Penalty
  • 3rd 1:44Andrew Cristall (4–1)high · backhand · 13 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 4:23Penalty
  • 3rd 4:26Penalty
  • 3rd 4:39Philippe Daoust (4–2)high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 5:30Henrik Rybinski (5–2)high · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 8:51Penalty
  • 3rd 10:53Bogdan Trineyev (6–2)low · snap · 24 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 18:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:29Olle Lycksell (6–3)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Mitch Gibson