Colorado Eagles at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Colorado Eagles

2:3

Final / OT

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

COLCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 3.55.0
High danger: 47
Chances: 1414
Shots: 3238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal38

14Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances7

3.47Expected goals5.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	4–0	1–0	1.0–0.5
2nd	13–11	5–6	2–1	1.6–1.6
3rd	7–13	5–5	1–3	0.9–1.3
OT	0–5	0–3	0–3	0.0–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:50	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 5.05
GSAx: +2.05

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.47
GSAx: +1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:32Jack Ahcan (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 18:59Penalty
2nd 3:09Juuso Välimäki (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
2nd 4:56Penalty
2nd 12:15Penalty
2nd 16:30Nikita Prishchepov (2–1)low · 22 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 8:12Penalty
3rd 16:28Penalty
3rd 18:46Skyler Brind’Amour (2–2)high · 19 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
OT 1:25Penalty
OT 2:42Felix Unger Sörum (2–3)5v4 · low · 12 ft · beat Kyle Keyser