Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

2:6

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.03.0
High danger: 25
Chances: 512
Shots: 2227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal27

5Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances5

1.95Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	3–2	1–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	6–8	0–6	0–3	0.4–1.3
3rd	7–9	2–4	1–2	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 21
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -2.96

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:56Penalty
1st 5:02Penalty
1st 8:32Penalty
1st 8:32Penalty
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 14:36Dominic Toninato (0–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 16:09Penalty
1st 19:25Taige Harding (0–2)low · 53 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 19:52Penalty
2nd 0:29Nick Lardis (0–3)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 3:36Penalty
2nd 5:39Cole O’Hara (1–3)low · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 7:29Penalty
2nd 9:10Gavin Hayes (1–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 11:15Penalty
2nd 11:15Penalty
2nd 14:04Penalty
3rd 2:38Aidan Thompson (1–5)medium · rebound · 49 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 4:46Penalty
3rd 5:14Penalty
3rd 5:35Reid Schaefer (2–5)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 7:46Rem Pitlick (2–6)low · 42 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 12:45Penalty