Henderson Silver Knights at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

4:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

HSKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.42.5
High danger: 102
Chances: 149
Shots: 3130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances9

10High-danger chances2

3.41Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	5–5	2–0	1.2–1.1
2nd	8–11	4–3	3–2	0.9–0.9
3rd	12–7	5–1	5–0	1.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -0.59

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:27Sloan Stanick (1–0)high · rebound · 36 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 11:49Penalty
1st 17:32Penalty
1st 17:41Dylan Coghlan (2–0)4v5 · low · 32 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 1:48Kai Uchacz (3–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 18:52Mattias Havelid (3–1)low · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 19:28Penalty
3rd 10:43Penalty
3rd 12:54Tanner Laczynski (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 17:38Penalty
3rd 19:43Donavan Houle (4–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Carl Lindbom