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Saturday, February 14

Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign
1:2
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
93%7%
xG
3.21.2
High danger
30
Chances
104
Shots
3213

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal13
10Scoring chances4
3High-danger chances0
3.20Expected goals1.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12420101.20.2
2nd8340201.10.2
3rd12644000.90.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
32
Saves
31
Allowed
1
xGA
3.20
GSAx
+2.20
Shots faced
13
Saves
11
Allowed
2
xGA
1.17
GSAx
-0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:22Penalty
  • 2nd 5:38Penalty
  • 2nd 6:37Cole Guttman (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 6:41Penalty
  • 2nd 10:37Penalty
  • 2nd 18:28Penalty
  • 3rd 1:33Nils Åman (1–1)low · 15 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 11:00Nick Poisson (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Erik Portillo