Syracuse Crunch at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Syracuse Crunch

3:1

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

SYRLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 23
Chances: 117
Shots: 3119

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances3

2.64Expected goals2.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–2	3–0	2–0	1.0–0.1
2nd	5–9	2–4	0–1	0.5–1.1
3rd	13–8	6–3	0–2	1.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:10	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: -0.36

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: +1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:36Penalty
1st 14:23Penalty
1st 16:08Dylan Duke (1–0)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 16:42Penalty
2nd 2:06Penalty
2nd 10:47Brendan Furry (2–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 14:05Penalty
2nd 16:29Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 7:04Penalty
3rd 12:05Penalty
3rd 13:15Tucker Robertson (2–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 18:45Mitchell Chaffee (3–1)empty net · low · 42 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov