AHLDashboard
Sunday, February 15

Colorado Eagles at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Colorado Eagles
2:3
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

COLCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.93.0
High danger
44
Chances
1115
Shots
3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28
11Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances4
2.90Expected goals2.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14915010.80.9
2nd111667221.21.6
3rd10343210.90.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
2.90
GSAx
+0.90
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.98
GSAx
-0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:06Penalty
  • 1st 11:36Valtteri Puustinen (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 1st 12:36Jason Polin (2–0)low · 37 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 1st 16:19Penalty
  • 2nd 2:21Penalty
  • 2nd 3:02Penalty
  • 2nd 7:44Bradly Nadeau (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 2nd 8:54Penalty
  • 2nd 9:36Bradly Nadeau (2–2)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 0:22Penalty
  • 3rd 2:22Penalty
  • 3rd 5:44Penalty
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 16:10Noel Gunler (2–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Isak Posch