AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 15

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
4:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
84%16%
xG
3.31.7
High danger
61
Chances
103
Shots
3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27
10Scoring chances3
6High-danger chances1
3.32Expected goals1.71

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–62–11–10.9–0.5
2nd13–107–14–01.9–0.6
3rd10–111–11–00.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
3.32
GSAx
-0.68
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
27
Saves
26
Allowed
1
xGA
1.71
GSAx
+0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:37Penalty
  • 1st 8:33David Edstrom (1–0)low · 44 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 9:51Penalty
  • 1st 19:38Penalty
  • 2nd 0:28Reid Schaefer (2–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 6:52Penalty
  • 2nd 7:26Zach L’Heureux (3–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 8:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:37Penalty
  • 2nd 17:35Jack Matier (4–0)low · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 18:43Penalty
  • 3rd 1:28Penalty
  • 3rd 6:39Penalty
  • 3rd 6:39Penalty
  • 3rd 8:29Jake Furlong (4–1)low · 46 ft · beat Magnus Chrona