AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, February 16

Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket
3:4
Final / SO
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.03.7
High danger
49
Chances
814
Shots
2229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal29
8Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances9
1.97Expected goals3.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–93–51–30.6–1.3
2nd6–91–70–50.4–1.6
3rd7–94–13–10.8–0.5
OT2–20–10–00.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:041:22+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
3.70
GSAx
+0.70
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
1.97
GSAx
-1.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:31Penalty
  • 1st 14:31Penalty
  • 1st 14:31Penalty
  • 2nd 0:11Penalty
  • 2nd 0:11Penalty
  • 2nd 0:42Benoit-Olivier Groulx (0–1)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
  • 2nd 0:59Logan Shaw (0–2)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
  • 2nd 13:46Penalty
  • 3rd 0:49Florian Xhekaj (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 2:23Penalty
  • 3rd 6:12Vincent Arseneau (2–2)high · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 6:50Alex Belzile (3–2)high · tip · 15 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 16:22Penalty
  • 3rd 16:22Penalty
  • 3rd 16:30Penalty
  • 3rd 16:30Penalty
  • 3rd 18:18Penalty
  • 3rd 18:18Cédric Paré (3–3)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Jacob Fowler