Hershey Bears at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Hershey Bears

1:3

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

HERBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.72.5
High danger: 43
Chances: 99
Shots: 3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.75Expected goals2.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	3–1	2–1	1.1–0.5
2nd	9–10	1–4	0–1	0.5–1.0
3rd	10–10	5–4	2–1	1.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: +1.75

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:45Penalty
1st 19:44Louie Belpedio (1–0)low · 41 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 2:14Penalty
2nd 2:21Penalty
2nd 2:57Penalty
2nd 15:28Olle Lycksell (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 8:10Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–2)low · 42 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 19:52Philippe Daoust (1–3)empty net · low · 21 ft