Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign

3:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.93.0
High danger: 45
Chances: 1310
Shots: 2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances5

2.94Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–8	0–2	0–0	0.2–0.6
2nd	5–7	2–3	0–2	0.5–0.8
3rd	13–12	11–5	4–3	2.2–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	16:44 of the 3rd	3:16	3:16	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -2.04

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: -0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:08Aatu Jämsen (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 0:38Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–1)low · 26 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 2:22Ben Berard (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 5:56Penalty
2nd 11:27Penalty
2nd 12:41Penalty
2nd 12:41Penalty
2nd 14:56Penalty
2nd 15:28Glenn Gawdin (2–2)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 17:19Penalty
2nd 17:19Penalty
3rd 3:51Aatu Jämsen (3–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 6:02Jujhar Khaira (3–3)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 13:28Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3–4)low · 27 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:44Ty Mueller (3–5)medium · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley