AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 18

Hershey Bears at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Hershey Bears
3:2
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

HERTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
16%84%
xG
1.83.0
High danger
04
Chances
812
Shots
2641

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal41
8Scoring chances12
0High-danger chances4
1.79Expected goals3.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–171–60–20.3–1.4
2nd10–82–10–00.7–0.5
3rd9–165–50–20.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
2.99
GSAx
+0.99
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
1.79
GSAx
-1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:40Penalty
  • 2nd 0:15Penalty
  • 2nd 8:15Luke Haymes (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 12:47Penalty
  • 2nd 15:02Penalty
  • 2nd 15:37Alex Nylander (0–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 16:58Penalty
  • 2nd 18:52Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–2)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 5:53Penalty
  • 3rd 10:42Ilya Protas (2–2)medium · backhand · 13 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 12:31Ivan Miroshnichenko (3–2)medium · tip · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby