Syracuse Crunch at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Syracuse Crunch

2:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

SYRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 2.82.3
High danger: 52
Chances: 146
Shots: 2322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal22

14Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances2

2.80Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	3–2	1–1	0.8–1.1
2nd	7–3	6–1	2–0	1.0–0.3
3rd	7–11	5–3	2–1	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +0.80

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: +1.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:13Mitchell Chaffee (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 5:24Penalty
1st 9:12Penalty
1st 18:08Scott Harrington (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 8:12Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 19:50Dylan Duke (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 8:20Penalty
3rd 14:50Penalty