AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 18

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
7:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
4.02.9
High danger
33
Chances
189
Shots
3931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal31
18Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances3
3.96Expected goals2.89

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–117–42–21.3–1.2
2nd19–88–10–01.7–0.7
3rd10–123–41–10.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR31:31 of the 3rd18:2918:29+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
2.89
GSAx
+0.89
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
2.84
GSAx
-1.16
Will Cranley
Shots faced
8
Saves
5
Allowed
3
xGA
1.12
GSAx
-1.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:33Theo Lindstein (0–1)low · 34 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 1st 1:14Avery Hayes (1–1)medium · rebound · 45 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 1st 1:44Ville Koivunen (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 1st 10:25Avery Hayes (3–1)low · 51 ft · beat Will Cranley
  • 1st 15:01Ville Koivunen (4–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 15:46Penalty
  • 1st 16:17Penalty
  • 2nd 6:55Penalty
  • 2nd 8:27Dillon Dube (4–2)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 2nd 9:39Penalty
  • 2nd 16:20Penalty
  • 2nd 18:59Penalty
  • 3rd 1:31Avery Hayes (5–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 4:43Penalty
  • 3rd 8:26Tanner Howe (6–2)low · 40 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 11:45Tanner Howe (7–2)high · 23 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko