Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

3:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.74.0
High danger: 49
Chances: 816
Shots: 2939

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal39

8Scoring chances16

4High-danger chances9

2.70Expected goals3.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–13	5–2	3–1	1.5–0.7
2nd	11–8	3–4	1–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	4–18	0–10	0–7	0.2–2.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.99
GSAx: -0.01

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:24Zach Uens (1–0)high · tip · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 4:14Carson Rehkopf (2–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 12:12Jagger Firkus (3–0)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 1:44Atro Leppänen (3–1)medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 7:26Penalty
2nd 12:16Penalty
2nd 18:23Penalty
3rd 1:01James Hamblin (3–2)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 9:21Damien Carfagna (3–3)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 10:06Penalty
3rd 15:40Roby Järventie (3–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Victor Östman