Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

2:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.32.8
High danger: 36
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal34

10Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances6

2.30Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–12	3–4	1–3	0.5–1.1
2nd	12–11	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.8
3rd	8–11	4–4	1–3	0.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -1.20

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: +0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:06Penalty
1st 19:12Penalty
2nd 6:03Nikita Alexandrov (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 8:53Jack Millar (0–2)low · 51 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 11:24Otto Salin (0–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 19:36Ben Berard (1–3)high · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 4:37Penalty
3rd 10:07Chase Stillman (2–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 19:01Francesco Pinelli (2–4)empty net · low · 86 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo