Utica Comets at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Utica Comets

2:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

UTCHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 1.41.4
High danger: 10
Chances: 55
Shots: 2517

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal17

5Scoring chances5

1High-danger chances0

1.44Expected goals1.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	1–1	0–0	0.5–0.4
2nd	5–4	2–1	0–0	0.4–0.3
3rd	9–8	2–3	1–0	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:30 of the 3rd	7:30	7:30	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.44
GSAx: -0.56

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: +0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 12:30Penalty
3rd 10:05Ethan Edwards (1–0)low · 67 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 11:56Penalty
3rd 11:56Penalty
3rd 12:30Marc McLaughlin (2–0)low · 55 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:26Juuso Pärssinen (2–1)medium · rebound · 27 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 18:35Penalty
3rd 18:35Penalty
3rd 18:35Penalty
3rd 18:35Penalty