Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 3.53.2
High danger: 65
Chances: 1512
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

15Scoring chances12

6High-danger chances5

3.46Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	3–6	1–2	0.8–1.3
2nd	10–7	6–2	4–0	1.5–0.5
3rd	11–14	6–4	1–3	1.2–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +2.19

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:59Penalty
1st 9:37Penalty
1st 10:08Alex Bump (1–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 10:41Cooper Marody (2–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 4:28Tucker Robertson (3–0)high · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 10:02Corey Schueneman (3–1)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 13:36Penalty
2nd 19:19Phil Tomasino (4–1)high · 21 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 2:54Penalty
3rd 2:54Penalty
3rd 4:09Penalty
3rd 4:09Penalty
3rd 4:09Penalty
3rd 5:43Penalty
3rd 16:19Penalty
3rd 16:19Penalty
3rd 16:19Penalty
3rd 16:19Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty
3rd 19:54Penalty