Charlotte Checkers at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Charlotte Checkers

0:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

CLTSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.24.0
High danger: 37
Chances: 916
Shots: 2539

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal39

9Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances7

2.25Expected goals4.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	8–13	3–7	1–3	0.7–1.8
3rd	8–15	3–7	1–3	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.02
GSAx: +0.02

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +2.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:44Gabriel Szturc (0–1)medium · 33 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 14:22Lucas Mercuri (0–2)high · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 19:16Penalty
2nd 0:26Ethan Gauthier (0–3)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 12:26Penalty
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 17:29Lucas Mercuri (0–4)low · 35 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 4:35Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 12:14Penalty