AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 20

Belleville Senators at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Belleville Senators
2:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

BELPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.93.6
High danger
57
Chances
812
Shots
2639

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 70% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal39
8Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances7
2.88Expected goals3.64

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–122–32–11.1–1.0
2nd7–122–22–10.7–1.0
3rd10–154–71–51.1–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
3.64
GSAx
-1.36
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
2.88
GSAx
+0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:27Brett Harrison (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 5:46Penalty
  • 1st 9:33Arthur Kaliyev (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 9:48Riley Tufte (1–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 7:44Penalty
  • 2nd 7:44Penalty
  • 2nd 7:44Penalty
  • 2nd 9:43Olle Lycksell (2–2)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 13:20Penalty
  • 2nd 13:20Penalty
  • 2nd 14:47Matěj Blümel (2–3)low · 23 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 19:30Brett Harrison (2–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 19:54Joey Abate (2–5)low · 27 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 12:08Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Penalty