AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 20

Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars
5:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
2.62.8
High danger
42
Chances
89
Shots
2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30
8Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances2
2.65Expected goals2.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–132–30–10.6–1.2
2nd8–81–41–10.7–1.0
3rd11–95–23–01.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.83
GSAx
+0.83
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
29
Saves
24
Allowed
5
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-2.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:19Reid Schaefer (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 1st 8:56Tommy Bergsland (1–1)low · 25 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 12:19Penalty
  • 2nd 0:52Penalty
  • 2nd 4:36Matthew Seminoff (2–1)low · 24 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 5:21Fedor Svechkov (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 2nd 7:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:51Sean Chisholm (3–2)low · 17 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 3:23Cameron Hughes (4–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 9:51Penalty
  • 3rd 13:58Penalty
  • 3rd 17:59Arttu Hyry (5–2)empty net · low · 121 ft · beat Magnus Chrona