AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 20

Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers
5:4
Final / OT
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
3.13.1
High danger
66
Chances
1013
Shots
3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29
10Scoring chances13
6High-danger chances6
3.14Expected goals3.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–83–21–10.7–0.7
2nd17–136–94–31.9–1.7
3rd7–81–21–20.4–0.7
OT1–00–00–00.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:041:51+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.14
GSAx
-1.86
Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.08
GSAx
-0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:11Penalty
  • 1st 5:48Seth Griffith (0–1)low · wrist · 60 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 7:05Penalty
  • 1st 19:02William Strömgren (1–1)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 2nd 2:47Alec Regula (1–2)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 7:39Ethan Keppen (1–3)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 11:40Penalty
  • 2nd 11:40Penalty
  • 2nd 11:40Penalty
  • 2nd 16:35Penalty
  • 2nd 18:05Turner Ottenbreit (2–3)4v5 · low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 3rd 1:04Penalty
  • 3rd 10:04David Silye (3–3)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 3rd 11:56Penalty
  • 3rd 12:18Atro Leppänen (3–4)5v4 · low · slap · 53 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 18:47Martin Frk (4–4)high · slap · 44 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • OT 0:31Daniil Miromanov (5–4)low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Connor Ungar