AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 20

Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks
3:6
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.42.8
High danger
64
Chances
912
Shots
2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances12
6High-danger chances4
2.35Expected goals2.81

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–83–32–00.6–0.6
2nd7–152–61–40.8–1.8
3rd9–44–33–01.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB31:39 of the 3rd18:2118:21+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
2.81
GSAx
-3.19
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.35
GSAx
-0.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:39Penalty
  • 1st 10:25Arshdeep Bains (1–0)4v5 · high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 14:26Trevor Connelly (1–1)medium · wrist · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 15:00Danila Klimovich (2–1)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 5:04Penalty
  • 2nd 6:08Trevor Connelly (2–2)5v4 · medium · snap · 41 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 8:06Tanner Laczynski (2–3)medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 13:17Trevor Connelly (2–4)high · backhand · 8 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 18:16Penalty
  • 3rd 1:39Mitch McLain (2–5)low · wrist · 43 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 8:33Penalty
  • 3rd 8:33Penalty
  • 3rd 9:04Penalty
  • 3rd 15:09Penalty
  • 3rd 15:09Penalty
  • 3rd 17:06Mathieu Cataford (2–6)medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 18:11Arshdeep Bains (3–6)low · snap · 34 ft · beat Carl Lindbom