AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

Charlotte Checkers at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Charlotte Checkers
4:3
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

CLTSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
28%72%
xG
2.63.3
High danger
15
Chances
1115
Shots
3430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances15
1High-danger chances5
2.62Expected goals3.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–85–50–20.9–1.0
2nd11–123–61–10.8–1.3
3rd15–103–40–21.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SYR−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SYR212:57 of the 3rd7:034:38+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
2.62
GSAx
-1.38
Kirill Gerasimyuk
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
3.32
GSAx
+0.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:36Penalty
  • 1st 12:07Penalty
  • 1st 12:07Nate Smith (1–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 1st 19:18Penalty
  • 1st 19:18Penalty
  • 1st 19:18Penalty
  • 1st 19:18Penalty
  • 2nd 4:55Penalty
  • 2nd 4:55Penalty
  • 2nd 8:00Matteo Pietroniro (1–1)low · 24 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 3rd 6:11MacKenzie Entwistle (2–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 3rd 8:48Penalty
  • 3rd 8:48Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Robert Mastrosimone (3–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 3rd 14:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:31Dylan Duke (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 3rd 18:18Nate Smith (4–2)empty net · low · 153 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 3rd 19:20Lucas Mercuri (4–3)high · 8 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk