Bridgeport Islanders at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

3:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

BRIWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 2.33.2
High danger: 48
Chances: 811
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances8

2.33Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	2–1	2–1	0.7–0.4
2nd	7–9	1–3	0–2	0.4–0.8
3rd	13–14	5–7	2–5	1.3–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jeremy Smith

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: -0.84

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:06Adam Beckman (1–0)low · wrist · 46 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 7:55Julien Gauthier (2–0)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 17:26Filip Hållander (2–1)high · snap · rebound · 25 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
1st 19:29Atley Calvert (2–2)low · wrist · 45 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
2nd 8:18Penalty
2nd 8:18Penalty
2nd 8:18Penalty
2nd 16:14Sebastian Aho (2–3)medium · backhand · 16 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
3rd 8:29Ville Koivunen (2–4)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Jeremy Smith
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 13:10Liam Foudy (3–4)4v5 · medium · backhand · 11 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist