Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

2:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.42.6
High danger: 22
Chances: 48
Shots: 3333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal33

4Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

2.37Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	1–2	1–1	0.7–0.5
2nd	5–19	0–5	0–1	0.4–1.7
3rd	17–7	3–1	1–0	1.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -0.39

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:16Riley Tufte (1–0)low · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 15:44Penalty
2nd 1:34Dillon Dube (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 6:22Penalty
2nd 12:02Penalty
2nd 17:07Chris Wagner (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
2nd 17:45Jakub Stancl (1–3)high · 23 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 2:55Penalty
3rd 13:43Penalty
3rd 16:38Penalty
3rd 17:16Matthew Poitras (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko