AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms
6:4
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
4.83.7
High danger
107
Chances
2115
Shots
3433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal33
21Scoring chances15
10High-danger chances7
4.82Expected goals3.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–78–34–02.0–0.5
2nd14–148–53–31.8–1.6
3rd8–125–73–41.0–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
3.70
GSAx
-0.30
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.63
GSAx
-0.37
Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
13
Saves
10
Allowed
3
xGA
2.19
GSAx
-0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:17Jon McDonald (0–1)low · 96 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 1st 4:13Alex Bump (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 8:54Penalty
  • 1st 10:01Alex Bump (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 14:22Penalty
  • 1st 18:19Penalty
  • 1st 18:19Penalty
  • 1st 18:19Oliver Bonk (3–1)low · 29 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 4:32Christian Kyrou (4–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 5:34Henrik Rybinski (4–2)high · 10 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 2nd 6:15Henrik Rybinski (4–3)low · 27 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 2nd 8:30Kaden Bohlsen (4–4)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 2nd 12:51Alexis Gendron (5–4)low · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 18:12Penalty
  • 3rd 11:11Penalty
  • 3rd 13:50Penalty
  • 3rd 18:15Zayde Wisdom (6–4)empty net · high · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson