Toronto Marlies at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Toronto Marlies

2:3

Final / SO

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

TORCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.71.7
High danger: 102
Chances: 116
Shots: 2519

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances6

10High-danger chances2

3.66Expected goals1.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	4–2	3–0	1.0–0.7
2nd	7–4	2–2	2–0	0.8–0.4
3rd	9–4	4–2	4–2	1.5–0.5
OT	3–2	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:35	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.66
GSAx: +1.66

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:05Penalty
1st 10:36Penalty
1st 10:36Penalty
1st 11:50Penalty
1st 18:00Logan Shaw (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 5:13Penalty
2nd 18:36Penalty
3rd 4:38Jordan Dumais (1–1)high · 27 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 11:55Jordan Dumais (1–2)high · 15 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 18:31Jacob Quillan (2–2)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
OT 2:52Penalty