AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

Belleville Senators at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Belleville Senators
0:4
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BELHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
10%90%
xG
1.43.1
High danger
07
Chances
410
Shots
2028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal28
4Scoring chances10
0High-danger chances7
1.45Expected goals3.09

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–91–10–10.3–0.7
2nd9–63–40–20.8–0.9
3rd5–130–50–40.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL38:20 of the 3rd11:4011:40+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
3.09
GSAx
-0.91
Spencer Martin
Shots faced
20
Saves
20
Allowed
0
xGA
1.45
GSAx
+1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:08Brandon Scanlin (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 9:21Penalty
  • 1st 13:29Penalty
  • 1st 13:29Penalty
  • 1st 13:46Anton Blidh (0–2)high · 18 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 2:09Penalty
  • 2nd 14:18Penalty
  • 2nd 18:43Penalty
  • 3rd 8:20Adam Sýkora (0–3)high · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 9:02Penalty
  • 3rd 9:02Penalty
  • 3rd 10:35Juuso Pärssinen (0–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 18:01Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Penalty