AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

San Diego Gulls at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

San Diego Gulls
5:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

SDRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.81.9
High danger
42
Chances
117
Shots
3027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal27
11Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances2
2.77Expected goals1.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–115–22–01.2–0.7
2nd7–62–31–10.6–0.7
3rd10–104–21–11.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-2.23
Calle Clang
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
1.94
GSAx
-2.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:30Gavin Hayes (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 4:35Penalty
  • 1st 5:46Sasha Pastujov (1–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 13:43Penalty
  • 1st 16:23Jake Furlong (1–2)low · 59 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 17:55Gavin Hayes (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 19:16Penalty
  • 1st 19:32Ryan Carpenter (2–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 3:09Stian Solberg (3–3)medium · 20 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 4:26Penalty
  • 2nd 4:26Penalty
  • 2nd 4:26Penalty
  • 2nd 13:13Penalty
  • 3rd 5:21Gavin Hayes (3–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 10:15Penalty
  • 3rd 10:24Sasha Pastujov (4–4)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 12:31Stian Solberg (5–4)medium · rebound · 40 ft · beat Drew Commesso