AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign
4:2
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
79%21%
xG
3.31.9
High danger
63
Chances
125
Shots
3017

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal17
12Scoring chances5
6High-danger chances3
3.32Expected goals1.90

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–72–22–10.8–0.9
2nd9–74–31–21.0–0.8
3rd12–36–03–01.5–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
3.32
GSAx
-0.68
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.90
GSAx
-0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:23Penalty
  • 1st 2:23Penalty
  • 1st 4:11Penalty
  • 1st 6:20Francesco Pinelli (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 15:57Penalty
  • 1st 16:01Penalty
  • 1st 16:05Austin Poganski (1–1)low · 59 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 19:41Penalty
  • 2nd 11:50Aatu Jämsen (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 12:46Andre Lee (3–1)low · 42 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 18:43Daniil But (3–2)high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:13Penalty
  • 3rd 8:59Penalty
  • 3rd 11:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:51Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Jack Millar (4–2)empty net · low · 153 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber