AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 21

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds
3:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.44.6
High danger
312
Chances
1220
Shots
2846

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal46
12Scoring chances20
3High-danger chances12
2.42Expected goals4.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–153–61–30.6–1.4
2nd11–145–62–21.1–1.2
3rd10–174–80–70.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
46
Saves
40
Allowed
6
xGA
4.56
GSAx
-1.44
Isak Posch
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.42
GSAx
-0.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:05Jagger Firkus (1–0)low · 33 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 12:44Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:32Jack Ahcan (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 3:47Penalty
  • 2nd 4:08Jacob MacDonald (1–2)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 14:26Penalty
  • 2nd 14:26Penalty
  • 2nd 16:18Jani Nyman (2–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 0:47Jason Polin (2–3)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 4:09Ivan Ivan (2–4)low · 43 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 5:38Penalty
  • 3rd 8:11Jakov Novak (3–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 14:00Penalty
  • 3rd 18:20Jason Polin (3–5)empty net · low · 81 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 18:55Alex Barré-Boulet (3–6)empty net · low · 79 ft · beat Nikke Kokko