AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 22

Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild
5:1
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
85%15%
xG
3.01.6
High danger
71
Chances
114
Shots
3525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal25
11Scoring chances4
7High-danger chances1
3.01Expected goals1.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–102–11–00.6–0.6
2nd12–74–23–10.9–0.5
3rd16–85–13–01.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
3.01
GSAx
-1.99
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
1.61
GSAx
+0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:32Kale Clague (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 1st 5:04Tyler Pitlick (1–1)low · 57 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 12:57Tyler Pitlick (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 14:39Penalty
  • 1st 18:39Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 3:19Penalty
  • 2nd 6:25Penalty
  • 2nd 11:13Riley Heidt (4–1)high · 13 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 15:29Jack Peart (5–1)low · 60 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 2:49Penalty
  • 3rd 2:49Penalty