San Diego Gulls at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

San Diego Gulls

1:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

SDRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 2.12.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 76
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances6

2High-danger chances3

2.11Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–9	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.4
2nd	8–9	2–2	0–1	0.5–0.9
3rd	13–11	5–3	2–2	1.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	17:35 of the 3rd	2:25	2:25	+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: +0.82

Owen Flores

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: +1.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 17:10Penalty
1st 17:40Penalty
2nd 1:16Nathan Gaucher (1–0)low · 47 ft · beat Owen Flores
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 10:42Andrew Perrott (1–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 15:55Penalty
3rd 15:55Penalty
3rd 17:35Brett Seney (1–2)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek