AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, February 24

Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors
2:4
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
2.43.0
High danger
66
Chances
914
Shots
2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29
9Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances6
2.35Expected goals2.95

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–135–43–21.1–1.0
2nd9–92–62–30.8–1.2
3rd8–72–41–10.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-1.05
Trent Miner
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.35
GSAx
+0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:20Penalty
  • 1st 2:39Valtteri Puustinen (0–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 3:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:30Sam Poulin (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 15:43Sean Behrens (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 15:58Atro Leppänen (2–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 17:53Penalty
  • 1st 19:32Penalty
  • 1st 19:32Penalty
  • 2nd 8:40Penalty
  • 2nd 14:15Tye Felhaber (2–3)high · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 3:11Penalty
  • 3rd 4:35Penalty
  • 3rd 5:01Jayson Megna (2–4)high · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 11:36Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty