Charlotte Checkers at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Charlotte Checkers

3:4

Final / OT

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

CLTBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.73.5
High danger: 54
Chances: 1014
Shots: 3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances4

3.70Expected goals3.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–11	3–5	2–1	1.4–1.1
2nd	10–8	4–2	1–2	1.1–1.1
3rd	9–7	3–5	2–0	1.2–0.8
OT	0–2	0–2	0–1	0.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:36	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: +0.70

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:14Matt Luff (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 5:46Nate Smith (1–1)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 15:38Adam Beckman (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 9:04Pierrick Dubé (1–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 9:40Noah Gregor (2–3)high · 20 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 18:32Brian Pinho (3–3)grade A · 166 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
OT 0:32Penalty
OT 1:35Adam Beckman (3–4)5v4 · high · rebound · 15 ft · beat Cooper Black