Utica Comets at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Utica Comets

3:6

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

UTCHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.73.3
High danger: 14
Chances: 613
Shots: 4027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances4

2.70Expected goals3.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	1–2	0–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	16–10	2–6	1–3	1.0–1.8
3rd	12–9	3–5	0–1	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -0.30

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 12
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: -0.34

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.59
GSAx: -2.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:28Brett Leason (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 6:13Brett Leason (0–2)low · 34 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 16:10Nathan Légaré (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 5:02Kaden Bohlsen (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 5:14Ilya Protas (1–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 17:42Kyle Criscuolo (2–4)low · 34 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 19:59Andrew Cristall (2–5)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 18:10Corey Schueneman (2–6)empty net · low · 129 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 18:58Josh Filmon (3–6)medium · 35 ft · beat Clay Stevenson