Rochester Americans at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

ROCCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 1.82.3
High danger: 12
Chances: 57
Shots: 2630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances2

1.84Expected goals2.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–6	3–0	1–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	6–13	1–5	0–2	0.5–1.3
3rd	16–11	1–2	0–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	16:49 of the 3rd	3:11	3:11	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -1.72

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:37Olivier Nadeau (1–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
1st 17:02Konsta Helenius (2–0)low · 37 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
1st 19:52Zach Aston-Reese (2–1)low · 35 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:15Penalty
2nd 11:10Luca Marrelli (2–2)5v4 · low · slap · 49 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 13:29James Malatesta (2–3)high · tip · 22 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 16:49Mikael Pyyhtiä (2–4)low · backhand · 43 ft · beat Devon Levi