AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 25

Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies
4:1
Final
Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
2.01.7
High danger
43
Chances
86
Shots
3220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal20
8Scoring chances6
4High-danger chances3
1.96Expected goals1.68

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–92–30–20.4–0.8
2nd13–83–32–10.8–0.7
3rd9–33–02–00.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LAV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LAV39:58 of the 3rd10:0210:02+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
1.96
GSAx
-2.04
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.68
GSAx
+0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:08Luke Haymes (1–0)medium · tip · 19 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 1st 10:48Penalty
  • 1st 11:09Penalty
  • 1st 18:03Luke Tuch (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 3:16Penalty
  • 2nd 11:43Penalty
  • 2nd 17:02Penalty
  • 2nd 18:10Luke Haymes (2–1)5v4 · high · snap · 25 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 3rd 5:25Jacob Quillan (3–1)low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 9:58Luke Haymes (4–1)high · 21 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty