AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 25

Providence Bruins at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Providence Bruins
6:4
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

PROLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.64.0
High danger
44
Chances
1017
Shots
2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32
10Scoring chances17
4High-danger chances4
2.63Expected goals3.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–54–43–01.3–0.6
2nd8–123–41–00.8–1.1
3rd7–153–90–40.6–2.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:45+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
3.98
GSAx
-0.02
Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
2.63
GSAx
-3.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:14Penalty
  • 1st 6:58Matěj Blümel (1–0)5v4 · medium · 43 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 1st 13:12Georgii Merkulov (2–0)low · 33 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 1st 15:49Penalty
  • 2nd 9:25Patrick Brown (3–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 13:31Penalty
  • 2nd 13:40Oliver Bonk (3–1)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 16:12Patrick Brown (4–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 1:03Cooper Marody (4–2)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 3rd 2:32Alexis Gendron (4–3)low · 26 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 3rd 4:42John Farinacci (5–3)medium · 31 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 6:18Joey Abate (6–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 7:12Penalty
  • 3rd 15:51Penalty
  • 3rd 19:04Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Jacob Gaucher (6–4)4v5 · low · 24 ft · beat Luke Cavallin