San Jose Barracuda at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

San Jose Barracuda

4:2

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

SJCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.62.7
High danger: 63
Chances: 1514
Shots: 3824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 35% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances3

3.61Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	3–4	2–1	1.1–0.7
2nd	13–9	9–4	3–1	1.6–1.0
3rd	13–9	3–6	1–1	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: -0.39

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: +0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:38Penalty
1st 2:06Penalty
1st 4:00Patrick Giles (1–0)4v5 · low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 7:12Mattias Havelid (2–0)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 14:39Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 4:25Aydar Suniev (2–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 8:07Ryan Chyzowski (2–2)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 8:32Oliver Wahlstrom (3–2)high · tip · 16 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 19:37Penalty
3rd 2:14Egor Afanasyev (4–2)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 8:58Penalty
3rd 15:09Penalty